Israeli scientists warn of large earthquake in north

In biblical times, earthquakes represented the fire and brimstone that swallowed Sodom and Gomorrah and, with apologies to Joshua, probably brought down the walls of Jericho. Now, thousands of years later, scientists and government officials are warning hospitals and emergency services in northern Israel to prepare themselves for the next big one. A warning has gone out from Israel's Ministry of Health for hospitals to restock essential equipment and test satellite phones in the wake of hundreds of minor earthquakes centred in southern Lebanon in the past three months. "The probability of an earthquake of a magnitude of up to 6 on the Richter scale, originating in Lebanon and being felt in Israel has increased," Health Ministry director-general Avi Yisraeli said in the letter. Israel and the West Bank sit on the Dead Sea Transform rift, where the African and Arabian tectonic plates join and which is active almost daily, though most of the earthquakes are imperceptible. Scientists say there is often little way to tell for certain whether an increase in small quakes is a warning of a larger tremor, but acknowledge this recent activity is unusual and say it does increase the likelihood of a strong quake.

"It's like when you come to a street corner and see a red light. You can cross it and maybe you won't get hit by a car. But it's a warning," said Shmuel Marco, a geologist with Tel Aviv University. A sizable earthquake, between magnitude 6 and 7, seems to hit the region once every century; the last big one, of magnitude 6.2, struck in 1927, killing 285 people and injuring nearly 1,000. The smallest fraction of increase in magnitude would increase the damage exponentially, particularly in areas that are heavily populated. Israel's central plain and the Jordan Valley, which runs from the Sea of Galilee - known here as Lake Kinneret - through the West Bank to the Dead Sea are also at high risk for a strong quake. "Strong earthquakes have happened in the past and they will happen again, we are very sure about that," said Avi Shapira, who chairs Israel's national committee for earthquake preparedness. "From my perspective, it is a serious threat and we have to get prepared for it."

A series of small earthquakes, magnitude 4 to 4.3, centred around the Dead Sea last fall stirred Israel's Infrastructure Minister, Binyamin Ben Eliezer, to seek five billion shekels (more than $1.5-billion) over the next two decades to reinforce buildings across the country. Similar warnings to prepare are now also going out in southern Lebanon, where the country's National Scientific Research Centre has recorded 800 earthquakes, ranging from 2.3 to 5.1, since Feb. 12. In Israel and the West Bank, an earthquake raises the spectre of damage to major archeological sites - from the ancient Jewish-mysticism centre of Safed in the north to Jerusalem's Old City, built on an unstable foundation of thousands of years worth of ruins. Many of the area's oldest and most historic buildings, dating to the Ottoman Empire and before, would be at risk of collapse.