Terror Crisis Could Actually Help Obama

The belief that terrorism is an issue that favors the Republican Party has been a given of the current presidential campaign, with both Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney warningthat a Democratic president would leave America at risk for another 9/11. Even Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton told voters last year, “If certain things happen between now and the election, particularly with respect to terrorism, that will automatically give the Republicans an advantage again, no matter how badly they have mishandled it.” A few pundits, however, are starting to raise doubts about this conventional wisdom. For example, MSNBC political researcher Domenico Montanaro suggests that much would depend on the cause of any national security crisis. Montanaro writes, “There’s been chatter among some Democrats that the big fear Obama aides have is just what Black spoke about — some sort of national security crisis popping up in October. … That said, what the impact of a national security crisis in October is unknown for this reason: It depends on who initiates it. If it’s an outside force, then Black’s probably right. But if it’s something that President Bush sparks, then Obama could benefit.” At The New Republic, senior editor Michael Crowley offers a couple of other ways in which an attack could work to Obama’s advantage. “Do we assume it’s true that a big attack would help McCain? I think a lot depends on the particulars. Another failure of the homeland-security bureaucracy would further discredit Republicans. An attack clearly linked to anger over the Iraq war could also hurt”