Next big quake worse than 1906

The next major earthquake on the Hayward Fault - inevitable anytime now, experts say - will be the Bay Area's own Hurricane Katrina, affecting more than 5 million people, causing losses to homes and businesses of at least $165 billion and total economic losses of more than $1.5 trillion, scientists warn. And that's from ground shaking alone. If major fires break out - think 1906 in San Francisco - the total losses would be far higher, they said. The staggering numbers come from new predictions of losses resulting from a magnitude 7 temblor on the fault, in which ground shaking could spread from the quake's epicenter directly on the fault to communities as far off as Santa Rosa and San Jose - or beyond. Seismologists and quake loss experts joined recently to report the latest assessment of what scientists call "the single-most dangerous fault in the entire Bay Area." The analysis came from the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, from Risk Management Solutions, a scientific and engineering firm in Newark, and from the Association of Bay Area Governments. Their view of the past and future was sobering. Records and geologic trenching show that five major quakes struck along the Hayward Fault between 1315 and 1868 - an average of one every 140 years. The 140th anniversary of the last big one falls on Oct. 21. Quakes don't follow timetables, of course, but "a repeat of 1868 is becoming increasingly likely with each passing year," said Survey seismologist Thomas Brocher. He is a leader of the "1868 Alliance," a consortium of quake experts and local officials working to persuade Bay Area residents to learn the elements of earthquake preparedness, to retrofit homes and businesses, to hold earthquake drills in every school and to keep emergency supplies on hand. Brocher and Mary Lou Zoback, former chief scientist of the USGS earthquake hazards team and now vice president of Risk Management, noted that the Bay Area's $165 billion forecast for losses to residential and commercial buildings far exceeds the $141 billion damage to New Orleans buildings from Hurricane Katrina.