Al-Qaeda expert predicts summer attacks on West

The US homeland security chief Michael Chertoff was about to ring Jacqui Smith to congratulate her on her appointment as Britain’s home secretary when news came in of the attempted car bombings last month in London and Glasgow. The telephone call extended into two days of urgent talks, intelligence sharing and commiseration. The thwarted bomb plots have fuelled Chertoff’s growing conviction - a “gut feeling”, he said recently - that Al-Qaeda is planning more summer attacks in Britain or America. “In the West we’re going to see an increased tempo in terrorist activity,” he said in an interview. As evidence of the warning signs, Chertoff pointed to developments in south Asia (including Pakistan) where “Al-Qaeda has to some degree regenerated itself” since September 11, 2001, the “substantial increase in the number of public statements” from Al-Qaeda’s leadership and the terrorist organisation’s history of summer attacks as evidence of the heightened threat. The gaunt Chertoff, 53, has the air of a man who stays awake at night worrying. There are several categories of danger from Al-Qaeda, in Chertoff’s view: the threat of a “truly catastrophic attack which could kill thousands of people” and the loss of life on the scale of the London bombings of July 7, 2005, which “can be very bad, but you’re numbering losses in the dozens or couple of hundred”. Then there is the threat of an attack with weapons of mass destruction, which he described as his “number one priority”. Although he does not believe one is imminent, “it is not something we can address at the last minute”. Fears of another September 11 or July 7 are all too real, however. American intelligence chiefs delivered a classified report to the White House recently called “Al-Qaeda better positioned to strike in the West” amid concerns that terrorists born in Europe are multiplying. The ease with which a British-born jihadist may be able to travel to America without a visa has been haunting the US government. Chertoff last week renewed a controversial deal with the European Union that obliges airlines to share information about passengers travelling to the United States.